What countries have promised to do and what needs to be done to keep heat to 1.5C are not quite the same.
According to a study that was published in Nature, new research that was carried out by the University of East Anglia (UEA) reveals that the present plans for carbon removal will not be sufficient to comply with the Paris treaty goals to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. For the purpose of arriving at this result, scientists measured the “emissions gap” that exists between the various national climate protection policies and the actual amount of emissions that are required to achieve the aim.
According to the findings of this groundbreaking research, there is a gap of up to 3.2 billion tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) between the present worldwide plans to remove carbon from the atmosphere and the amount that is required by the year 2050 in order to prevent the most severe effects of global warming. The likes of heatwaves, floods, droughts, melting glaciers, and rising sea levels are all examples of these impacts.
Since 2010, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has been conducting measurements of this emissions gap that are comparable to those described above. Therefore, if we are to, well, survive as a species, climate policy needs to have a more ambitious scope, according to the research conducted by the UEA, which focuses primarily on the removal of carbon dioxide.
A more sophisticated and robust approach is required, one that maintains the existing carbon removal processes while simultaneously focused on reducing emissions, maximizing the use of renewable energy sources, and lowering the amount of land consumed by deforestation. There are also unique procedures for the removal of carbon, but many countries have been hesitant to consider them, let alone put them into practice.
There are also improved rock weathering systems and upgraded air filtering systems among these. Carbon is extracted from the atmosphere and stored in rocks using the latter method, which is a technology. When compared to the removal of 3 billion tons of carbon dioxide using conventional methods, these procedures are responsible for only 0.002 billion tons of carbon dioxide being removed annually. According to the findings of the research, these innovative choices will need to become more widespread in the years to come in order to assist in meeting the 1.5C barrier.
According to Dr. William Lamb, who is the principal author of the paper and a member of the MCC Applied Sustainability Science working group, “The calculation should certainly be refined for further accuracy.” This much is very clear: the 1.5C target will not be met under any circumstances if there is not a rapid drop in emissions towards zero across all sectors.
“Countries need more awareness, ambition, and action on scaling up carbon dioxide removal methods together with deep emissions reductions in order to achieve the aspirations of the Paris Agreement,” said Dr. Naomi Vaughan, who is a co-author of the study and works at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of East Anglia.
To this aim, even if every nation sticks to its commitments on carbon removal targets, it is expected that the amount of carbon removed will grow by a maximum of 0.5 billion tons by the year 2030 and by 1.9 billion tons by the year 2050. According to the most recent study from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in order to prevent the most severe consequences of climate change, it would be necessary to increase the amount of air pollution by 5.1 billion tons. To answer your question, yes, there is a gap of 3.2 billion tons.
To put it another way, we are not doomed, at least not yet. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) proposes an alternative scenario in which governments from around the world collaborate to lower the demand for energy on a global scale, spurred on by “politically initiated behavior.” Under this scenario, the amount of carbon that is removed would increase by 2.5 billion tons by the year 2050, and the gap between emissions and removal would be reduced to just 400 million tons through the use of alternative methods. Therefore, it is essential that we transform our entire civilization from one that prioritizes self-interest to one that prioritizes global collaboration. There is no harm in imagining, and who knows, maybe artificial intelligence will come to our rescue.