In what location is Brooklin?
There were three new Xbox models that were presented by Microsoft yesterday at Summer Game Fest 2024. However, those who followed the numerous leaks that occurred in the previous year might have been startled to see how little has changed for this mid-cycle refresh.
In the event that you were not following the FTC-Microsoft trial that took place the previous year, things took a positive turn for Microsoft, which ultimately resulted in the business acquiring Activision Blizzard. One of the things that did not go as planned was the redaction. One of the internal documents that was included in the collection of court documents was a memo that discussed the future of Xbox, or at the very least, one of the various futures that Microsoft was considering in May of 2022.
Phil Spencer, the head of Xbox, presented the Roadmap to 2030 document to the Federal Trade Commission in October 2022. He stated that the document was “a presentation from our devices organization to the gaming leadership team,” and he expressed his disagreement with several of the document’s projections. The PowerPoint deck provided an overview of the team’s strategy for the next-generation console as well as the mid-cycle console upgrade that bears the codename Fairhaven. Consequently, it was essentially a pitch deck, which included certain things that were unquestionably taking place and others that need financial backing in order to become a reality.
Let’s have a look at what was (somewhat) unexpected:
The month of May 2024 was supposed to be the first month that Sebile, the codename for an entirely new controller, was released to the public. According to the document, Sebile would come equipped with a brand new wireless technology that was referred to as “Xbox Wireless 2.” Exciting for gamers, it would also offer enhanced haptics similar to those seen on the Switch and PS5 controllers, as well as a direct-cloud connection similar to that of Stadia, which would reduce the amount of input latency experienced by Xbox Cloud Gaming.
After that, a pair of new Xbox systems would be introduced at the major summer ’24 show that Xbox is hosting, which really took place yesterday in the real world. To begin, a redesigned Xbox Series X that was cylindrical in shape and given the codename Brooklin. This gadget was supposed to be an all-digital, all-digital device that cost $500 and included WiFi 6E, Bluetooth 5.2, and a Sebile controller. The second product is the Ellewood, which is a $300 Series S refresh that comes with 1 terabyte of storage, the same upgraded wireless connectivity, and the Sebile controller, but there is no significant makeover.
Despite the fact that the document stated that all three of these devices were “funded,” it also presented two potential outcomes: one that would “limit Fairhaven investment” and another that would give the “full Fairhaven vision.” The former would reportedly offer a new industrial design, but it would feature a reduction in the number of cloud connections and functionality that the new controller features.
Moving forward in time to the Summer Game Fest of 2024, it seemed that neither of these possibilities will be available to us. Due to the fact that Microsoft has been selling a 1TB model for $350 since the fall of last year, we already had a preconceived notion that the Series S would not be updated. However, Microsoft’s vision for the Series X was not clear, and as a result, we came up with a pair of configurations that were somewhat peculiar: a 1TB all-digital Series X console that cost $450, and a 2TB special edition Series X console that cost $600 and included a disc drive. If there is improved wireless connectivity, Microsoft has not acknowledged it, and we have not heard anything about Sebile at this time; the new consoles were announced with normal Xbox controllers alongside them.
Taken by itself, these are excellent refreshers. Microsoft, on the other hand, found itself in the disadvantageous situation of having to compete not just with Sony and Nintendo, but also with itself, in the shape of those plans that were disclosed.
When compared to Brooklin, the 2TB all-digital system with a shiny new controller that the leaked deck was marketing, a $450 all-digital 1TB console and a $600 2TB special edition are two of the most underwhelming options available. Due to the fact that Microsoft and third-party sellers often sell the original 1TB Series X for that price, the $450 console is nearly an increase in price relative to its predecessor. The discless form of the PlayStation 5 is now priced at $450, which is an increase from the initial price of $400. It is important to note that Sony has actually raised the price of the PlayStation 5 since its launch. The $350 1TB Series S console is virtually the same system that we received in the fall of last year; nevertheless, when compared to the $300 refresh that was rumored, this console is also a poor deal.
Particularly plans dated May 2022, plans are subject to change. However, the manner in which they shift can provide insight into the way in which Microsoft is currently thinking about Xbox. During the year 2022, sales of Series X and S were, for the most part, keeping up with those of Xbox One. There is no longer any truth to that. The total number of Xbox Series consoles that have been sold since the launch in November 2020 is estimated to be between 28 and 29 million. Even in the United States, which is by far Microsoft’s most lucrative market, retail experts Circana report that the Xbox Series consoles are falling behind Xbox One by a margin of thirteen percent.
In a slide that was particularly illuminating, the document that was created in May 2022 claimed that between 25 and 29 million of the mid-cycle consoles could be sold in just three years. To put it into perspective, as of right now, that would mean more than doubling the lifetime sales of the platform. During that time period, the hardware team at Microsoft most likely did not anticipate sales to be as insignificant as they are at the present day. Approximately 58 million Xbox One systems were sold by Microsoft at the end of the previous console generation. This was a significant decrease from the more than 85 million Xbox 360 consoles that were sold by the company.
Third-party analysis reveals that a normal week for Xbox in 2024 involves moving between sixty thousand and eighty thousand systems, with Nintendo double that figure and Sony frequently treble it. Microsoft does not discuss console sales figures until it has something positive to say about them. Or, to put it another way, Xbox is falling further and further behind each and every week. It is quite improbable that we will learn what Microsoft’s expectations are for the updated consoles; nonetheless, it is highly doubtful that they are between 25 and 29 million.
Sony and Nintendo are largely following their own path, and they are doing fairly well at it. This presents a challenge for the Xbox team. 58 million PlayStation 5s have been sold by Sony, and the company is getting ready to release a professional version of the console that will be substantially more powerful than the Xbox Series X. Additionally, it has just revealed a game that would be available on Nintendo Switch, and it is opening up publishing on personal computers. A second system that will presumably be able to handle current-generation games (including Call of Duty!) with less reductions has been pre-announced by Nintendo. Nintendo has sold over 140 million Switches, and it often outsells Xbox. In the meantime, Microsoft is having trouble selling its existing consoles, facing setbacks in its strategy to increase the number of subscriptions to Game Pass, and appearing to have stifled the dream of its hardware team to launch a major mid-cycle refresh.
It does have one thing, and that is game developers who are creating games. With the exception of the lackluster new console SKUs, Microsoft’s massive Summer Game Fest served as a reminder of the extent to which the company now controls a significant portion of the industry and the number of titles that it is currently working on. The future of Gears of War, as well as Fable and Perfect Dark, were discussed in these updates. Both a new Call of Duty and a new Doom have been released. There are still a great number of studios working under its umbrella who do not have a “announced” project. Additionally, there are major games that were previously mentioned but did not make an appearance. These games include Marvel’s Blade, which was developed by Arkane Lyon, The Outer Worlds 2 by Obsidian, Everwild by Rare, and OD by Hideo Kojima. There are a lot of things going for Microsoft’s game studios, but with all of their titles coming to the personal computer (and several heading to the PlayStation and Switch), it is possible that fantastic games will not translate into great sales on consoles.
A handful of times, Phil Spencer has discussed the disclosures that occurred the previous year. He proceeded to Twitter almost immediately after the event to express his belief that “so much has changed,” which was undeniably accurate, albeit possibly not for the better. Additionally, he disclosed to a court that he had made a statement that was quite outrageous regarding the possibility of Microsoft quitting the gaming industry if Game Pass did not receive a more diverse group of users by the year 2026 or 2027. As of February of this year, the growth of Game Pass has been significantly slowing down, thus there’s a possibility that…
It is my true belief that Microsoft’s console business is on life support, and that the company does not require sparkling new hardware in order to generate a significant amount of money from gaming. However, I do not for a moment believe that Microsoft would spend the better part of one hundred billion dollars on developers in order to leave the gaming industry. Sebile, Ellewood, and Brooklin were presented with a gaming leadership team in May 2022, and they are in complete agreement with this proposition.